Antique price changes as shown on ARS

You will understand what I'm saying better if you've seen any of the "vintage" Antiques Roadshow (U.S. Version) programs where the 1999 or 2000 appraisals from the original broadcast dates are updated to what that item would be worth now in 2015.

I was surprised at some of the big changes, and surprised more by many items that have supposedly dropped to 1/3 of their former numbers. High-end lamps, plates, many cast-iron toys, etc. seem to have all but died. Very-rare, desirable, perfect-condition items, most N.A. items and some others have held value well.

Do you think some items were simply appraised too high before or are the changes all real? What major trends have you seen over time? What are the usual reasons for whole categories of items "dying?"

 

Hummels dropped as soon as they announced that they would be made in China in the future - even the ones made in the past. Same for some other makes like Fenton.

Quite a few 'collectibles' have more collectors dying than coming up.

Many toys, ceramics, coins have had their value decline due to Chinese fakes being made and low intellect collectors not knowing how to tell the difference.

Don't see many young uns at the auction.

 

I used to be good at guessing ballpark figures,but if what they say is accurate,then Im way out of the loop. Im wrong on guessing 75% of the time. The market is so wonky right now,it almost defies understanding.

 

In addition to what Terry said, it seems to me that while a lot of collectibles have held their value or increased, many items that are used heavily for decorating have decreased since popular home decor styles have changed drastically in the last 15 years.

 

Markets rise & fall, & knowing the future is next to impossible.

Home buyers have changed also, as have homes, reflecting what items fill those homes !

Every time a new member here posts their age as under 30, we get all giddy to see younger folks sharing our passion for antiques.
Their antiques , may well not be our antiques .....& only time will sort it all out as to what will hold value to future collectors.

 

I have seen some of these episodes and have been shocked by some of the drops. I don't necessarily disagree with what they are saying but would hope that some of the quality rare antiques would have held their value better.

The drops in American art pottery and arts and crafts metalwork markets, in particular, make me sick. One episode had two different rare Dirk Van Irp lamps that they said had dropped by about 50% ....... ouch! I think in these cases, the market may have been artificially boosted by decorating fad. However, I just can't think that all those people who wanted art pottery and were decorating in the arts and crafts style now hate it. Maybe they do.

I would also have thought that early American furniture would have held up better. This is an area that has been pretty durable over time as far as appreciation goes. It has always been pretty fad-proof, yet we see values off considerably these days. This may represent a significant shift in how the population is oriented to antiques.

I don't think any of us can depend on there being a reliable antiques market in our life times. Some of us have depended on it for jobs and retirement nest eggs. I know that I am no longer planning along these lines the way I was. It is an unfortunate state of affairs.

 

The market term is 'Yesterday's antiques'.

The big market driver is people buying stuff to fill their new homes and now minimal seems to be the fashion. So anything big, complicated or formal is out. Who uses a china tea set? Who has ornaments all over the place? Oldies.

It's the bread and butter stuff that is down, the really fine pieces still do well.

 

Since the economy went kapooey in '08 the people who collected all of those wonderful things, decided to start selling their collections. The problem as already stated is there is no following group of collectors. Our kids don't want it. Although I am noticing more and more 20 year olds coming through my store. So the grandkids are starting to show interests.

However their tastes are not the same as ours were. Just as our tastes were not the same as earlier collectors of antiquities.

We collected our grandparent's era, Arts and Crafts, Depression Glass, EAPG etc.

I often tell my customers, that there are no real antique stores anymore. We are Memory stores. We buy what brings us good memories or reminds us of someone special. Very few people come in asking for Jewel Tea, Roseville, California pottery, pink depression glass, even Candlewick.

And what Terry said about the reproductions.

 

Regarding toys, and cast-iron in particular, a great many old toys are bought by people who remember they "had one when they were a child."
So, over the years, the market shifts. A few years ago cast-iron toys were selling quite well...say $400 for a nice little toy airplane. But the folks who played with those as kids, late 1800s, early 1900s, are nearly all gone now. Nobody is buying those cast-iron toys at the shows I've been to, you pretty much can't give them away.
But Japanese tin toys, 1960s, are selling like hotcakes, because the people who played with them as kids are buying now.
An entirely different dynamic than with the home-decorating type of antique. JMHO.

 

Like I said, our antiques may not be other folks antiques ....and your point bears that out ......in a poignant manner !! !

( hey steve.....hope yer doin well...)

 

( hey steve.....hope yer doin well...)

Yes; and the same to you!